Guru in a Box

Posted by Kristi Heim

It must be Seattle if a crowd of 500 finds a talk on development statistics enthralling.

But Hans Rosling isn't just any speaker, and he narrates history like he's announcing a horse race. His colorful bubble charts show the progress of countries over time, measuring factors such as life expectancy and income.

A doctor and international health professor at the Karolinska Institutet in Sweden, Rosling created the Trendalyzer software that was acquired by Google three years ago and launched this month as Data Explorer.

Rosling said he was glad to be in a place so focused on global health research and funding. "It's the best invitation you can get," he said, speaking at a dinner for the Seattle Biomedical Research Institute last week. "When Seattle calls, you come."

Rosling was given an award and a distinctive gift from his Seattle's hosts -- a tie designed with the image of the HIV virus.

He throws a lot of information out quickly, scattering statistics literally all over the map, and delights in busting myths. His students for example, might think of the world as divided between the West -- "we," and poor countries, or "them," he said.

But data shows that description no longer applies.

The largest chunk of the world economy -- 60 percent -- is made up of middle income countries, including China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Turkey, Thailand. And countries typically labeled as poor are progressing faster than many people realize.

Sweden looks pretty advanced when compared to Egypt or Bangladesh, but in 1900 Sweden had a higher child mortality than Bangladesh. Over time, child mortality rates have fallen faster in Egypt, Bangladesh and Brazil than they did in Sweden. And the country with the lowest child mortality in the world today is actually not Sweden but Singapore.

But not all health problems are getting adequate attention, Rosling said. Trypanosomiasis, or sleeping sickness, is a disease that affects only the poor. In DR Congo, which rivals Zimbabwe for the world's lowest life expectancy and health rates, sleeping sickness has had such a profound impact that people named a city for it.

Of course, the success of his or any data depends on whether people act on it rationally, which is too often not the case.

HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria were known as the "ATMs" in Africa because those diseases captured donor dollars, he said. But diarrhea and pneumonia, which also kill millions, didn't make the list of diseases addressed by the Global Fund.

"Blair and Bush didn't understand it, and Bono didn't have time to explain," he quipped. "The BBB" is his name for Tony Blair, George W. Bush and Bono.

Rosling, the son of a coffee roaster and the first in his family to go to school, emphasized that improvements in health must go hand in hand with economic growth and education. The way out of poverty requires education, infrastructure, information, freedom, and a job.

He noted that the most common cause of death among rural Chinese women is suicide, and the most common method is to drink agricultural chemicals.

"It's not a paradise where you get rid of malaria and everything is good," he said.